Despite the numerous and varied factors impacting the projector market, Futuresource [1] continues to predict the development of volume sales with supreme accuracy.
In Q1 2014, Futuresource forecasted that the global projector market in 2015 was set to hit 7.6 million units – the actual number was 7.67 million units – a difference of just -0.9% ‘year-on-year’. Regional-level predictions were also highly precise – Americas’ results were just -0.3% out, APAC -2.4% and EMEA only 0.8%.
Claire Kerrison, Senior Market Analyst, Professional Displays at Futuresource Consulting told us “Despite the debate surrounding the impact of Euro 2016 in EMEA and macro-economic/political issues across several key markets, Futuresource’s CYQ1 2016 forecasts were out by just 3.8% as the market hit 1.73 million units – a tad greater than the 1.67 million units predicted a year earlier. The forecast accuracy can be attributed to careful consideration, on a country level, of numerous market influencers.”
In calculating its forecasts, Futuresource analyses: penetration rates, development of competing display technologies (of which Futuresource has several well-established trackers), mobile PC tenders, government spend, economic outlook and market seasonality – as well as more macro factors such as advances in projection technology.
Futuresource has forecasted global projector volumes sales to fall by around 20% from 2015 to 2020. However, market value is expected to move in the opposite direction and is set to experience double-digit growth over the same period. This value will be driven by greater adoption of solid state solutions (which will retain their premium over lamp-based equivalents), replacement demand of digital cinema models and erosion of the bottom-end of the market.
Given the Futuresource history of correctly predicting how the projector market will develop, the notion that value will grow as volumes decline can almost be considered a fact.
Readers should get in touch with Nicola Finn via nicola.finn@futuresource-hq.com for industry comment, forecasting and trends.