Mobile Surveys Forecasting Big Numbers

Gail Chiasson, North American Editor

IE Market Research Corporation, Vancouver-based global provider of market intelligence services in the telecoms space, in its new 4Q.2011 Global Mobile Entertainment Forecast, 2008 – 2016, forecasts mobile entertainment revenue to rise from $39.6 billion in 2011 to $53.9 billion in 2016

Total U.S. spending on mobile media is expected to grow 30% this year to $55 billion, according to a new forecast presented recently at MediaPost’s Mobile Insider Summit. That estimate is from market research firm PQ Media, Stamford, Connecticut, with the additional note that there will be 50% growth in both marketing and advertising.

And research firm eMarketer, New York. estimates mobile advertising spending in the U.S. reached $1.45 billion in 2011, up 89% from $769.6 billion in 2010. This year, U.S. mobile ad spending will grow 80% to $2.61 billion.

The three surveys reflect what everybody is seeing across the globe: that mobile is becoming more and more prevalent in companies’ marketing. But, as Noah Elkin, eMarketer principal analyst, says, “In order to form the most complete picture possible about the mobile ad market, we think it’s essential to evaluate multiple information sources, rather than a single set of survey data – especially as the market remains immature.”

IEMR’s forecast provides quantitative forecasts for Mobile Music, Mobile Gaming, Mobile Personalisation, Mobile TV, and other premium content. It covers 50+ countries and regions and is based on interviews with approximately 50,000 consumers globally, making it one of the most comprehensive forecasts of its kind in the world.

“We think that the global mobile entertainment market will see significant growth over the next five years,” says Nizar Assanie, vice-president (Research) at IEMR. “Compound Annual Growth from 2012 to 2016 will be 6.3%. Among different categories of mobile entertainment, we expect that Mobile Music will see the biggest growth in revenues over the next five years. We forecast that global mobile music revenues will increase from $9 billion in 2011 to $18 billion in 2016.”

According to PQ Media, in the past five years, mobile marketing and advertising has grown eight- fold, while mobile content and access has tripled. But the latter is a much larger market – about $39.5 billion last year compared to $3.4 billion for marketing and advertising. Of that $3.4 billion, display ads, search, and video ads, for example, amount to about $1.8 billion, slightly more than the close to $1.6 billion devoted to mobile marketing formats like coupons, apps, and sponsored Tweets. Within just paid advertising in mobile, in-game ads and search have been the top categories, while on the marketing side, location-based services, coupons and apps have been tops.

Of the forecast growth in 2012 in marketing/advertising, there will be 50% growth in both marketing and advertising, Patrick Quinn, PQ Media CEO, told attendants at MediaPost’s Mobile Insider Summit. Among the challenges Quinn highlighted are device/network fragmentation; the difficulty to buy mobile inventory at scale; the still relatively low penetration on new devices like tablets; and the fact that Smartphone penetration has been slowed by high access fees.

According to eMarketer, the US mobile advertising market is growing far faster than expected, driven by the rapid ascension of Google’s mobile search advertising business, advertisers’ growing attraction to display inventory on tablet and smartphone devices, and the growing roster of mobile ad networks such as Google’s AdMob, Apple’s iAd and Millennial Media.

eMarketer estimates US mobile search advertising more than doubled in 2011, when spending grew to $652.5 million, up from just $253.2 million in 2010. This year, advertisers will spend $1.28 billion on mobile search ads in the US, eMarketer estimates. The research company estimates US mobile display ad spending, which includes spending on banner and rich media ads, will grow 93.5% to $861.7 million in 2012, after reaching $445.4 million in 2011. Spending on mobile video advertising will grow an estimated 122% to $151.5 million this year, up from $68.2 million in 2011.

Leave a Reply