A new industry analyst forecast from ABI Research claims that the world’s smartphone subscribers will download about 36 billion apps in 2012, resulting in almost 37 native apps through the year for the average smartphone subscriber.
However, despite the increase against 2011, Aapo Markkanen, ABI Research senior analyst believes the average download count will not increase substantially over the coming years. Rather, it is likelier to start modestly decreasing.
“When forecasting on app downloads, one has to make a number of assumptions on, for instance, the device mix, developer activity, and the demographics of existing and future smartphone users,” says Markkanen. “The next waves of smartphone subscribers in the more mature app markets of the United States, Western Europe, and parts of Asia will be downloading quite notably fewer apps than, say, the first one-third of the mobile consumers who bought smartphones.”
Another major factor contributing to the downward trend in average app downloads is the evolution of mobile web. The decision by the Financial Times to pull the plug on its iOS app and bet instead on HTML5 can be seen as a hint of what is to come next.
“News and magazine apps are a segment where the momentum is likely to shift towards the web within the next two to three years,” say Markkanen. “Since news and media content already account for a large share of smartphone usage and are likely to play an even bigger role in later adopters’ usage, changes in this segment alone will make subscribers on average download fewer native apps.”